The future of human computer interactions
A couple weeks ago I caught this TED video
I knew that scientists had successfully used cranial electrodes measuring brain patterns to control computer cursors and such, but last time I heard about it it was all pretty rudimentary. The technical advances that this group has made, both in hardware and software (significantly cheaper electrode headsets which don't require intensive preparation and algorithms mapping the folded brain surface structure to a flatter surface), have made some very exciting things possible.
What we are looking at here is very possibly going to become a standard component of human-computer interface. From punch cards to keyboard terminals to the first mice computers have become more and more user friendly. However, mouse and keyboard have been the standard means of interaction for decades now. Only very recently have touch screens (mostly in smaller mobile devices) made their way into the mainstream and are proliferating through the electronic markets. This technology of course was also presented in a TED talk just as it began finding integration in the mainstream of Apples phones and iPods.
We have also seen devices like the Nintendo Wii with their revolutionary motion sensing game controllers follow a somewhat similar trend. Now motion sensors are also being integrated into phones and mobile devices. Another interesting paradigm is that of room motion sensing, as in Minority Report -
What these developments have in common is that in some way or another each of these interfaces makes the way we interact with computers more natural. Touch screens allow us remove the separation between the device we use for clicking on things and visual representations of those things. Instead of pointing a mouse towards an icon or button and clicking, we touch what we can actually see as the icon or button. It also makes more natural many other interactions such as zooming. Motion sensors make it so that the motions we make in the space we actually live in can be used instead of virtualized button clicks. But what could be more natural than simply thinking open, move, zoom move or hide? If the advances of these other technologies serve as any sort of preclusion for what we can expect to see in the coming years, these brain scanning devices and room sensing technology are likely to proliferate very soon.
What is interesting to consider with all of this is that while designing revolutionary apps for these new interface technologies is fairly straightforward once they hit the scene, something more significant is looming. After coming out of decades of standard interface technologies consisting essentially of the mouse and keyboard only to witness these many advancements find their way into our sphere so quickly, we find ourselves in a period where things are going to soon start shifting more and more rapidly.
We've already seen this in the small mobile device market, but laptops are still laptops and desktop computers are still desktops. What I'm on the edge of my seat for is to see how these new technologies are going to integrate themselves into the well established traditional computing devices or how they begin to replace them. It's easy to make touch screens the new standard for a mobile device when the technology is still in it's infancy and no one is too attached to anything yet. The realm is fluid, cutting edge and welcomes change. Changing anything in the realm of laptops or desktops upsets a very established domain.
At the moment, iPads and the like have some potential for grabbing some of the market for traditional laptop and desktop computing, but they are really very different beasts. What is important to note with them is that Apple had a specific vision when they were created. The envisioned a device that didn't try to replace the new iPhone/iPod technology or the existing laptop/desktop technology. They envisioned a device complementary to the devices in it's neighboring realms. This means that there is still room for revolution in the realm of laptop/desktop interface.
The recent advent of the iPad also illustrates another key point. If we look at the months before the iPad was released, there were scores of other companies that were marketing some sort of touch tablet or another. But no one cared. No one bought one. It was only once Apple released theirs that it was clear what the vision was for these new things and what they ought to be. This highlight's the importance of a cohesive vision for the implementation of something new of this sort.
To further illustrate this point, I had a chance to set up someone's new HP Touchsmart computer for them and play around with the interface a bit several months ago. It was cool but it wasn't revolutionary. Basically, it was windows with a little HP application that you could open which gave you a more touch friendly interface to various applications. The problem is that it was ad hoc. It was not an integration, it was a plugin, just like all of the touch tablets that no one sold. There was no cohesive vision and as a result the technology is not meeting it's potential.
So the question, once again, is when do we see these new technologies not just being plugged into the existing desktop/laptop paradigms, but revolutionizing them? When are the traditional operating systems going to bow to these new interface technologies and re-envision themselves from the ground up?
That this is going to happen is not the question (save global catastrophe, thermonuclear war or complete economic collapse). The question is what will the vision look like and who is going to envision it? Will it be Apple? Could it be one of these groups that we've looked at who have designed these new technologies? Will it be Google or some other organization committed to establishing the technology in a relatively open fashion? Will Microsoft redeem themselves by revolutionizing their operating system (see relevant xkcd strips 350, 528, 272, 612 - hope I'm not offending anyone here, but seriously, between Linux and Mac, what is the point of Windows)?
At this point these are hard questions to answer, but I'll bet my pinky toe that development is already under way. I would expect that Apple has a good chance of setting the precedent. Their history bears witness to their facility with that. It seems very unlikely that Microsoft has what it takes to rise to this challenge. It's certainly possible, but the problem (aside from the fact that they already do what they are doing now badly) is that they don't have the kind of full control over hardware and software that Apple has, so it is more difficult for them to make complete revolutions as quickly; they're still too married to the status quo to rock the boat.
My hope is that the open source community hits this one on the head first. Though Apple beat Google on groovy phone operating system, Google showed with the Droid and the Android operating system that open source has the ability to team up with device manufacturers to prototype a vision which is inherently modular with respect to hardware and leaves infinite room for flexibility, customization, hackabillity and all around openness in the operating system and software. You get something less cohesive than what you get when you have Apple creating the sole device and operating system which are wed to each other, but the open source community is I believe entirely fluid enough to craft a cohesive enough vision in this realm.
The time is nigh to begin thinking about the possible applications of these technologies and how they will shape our future. With this kind of power comes great moral responsibility. I hope that those with compasses embrace the tools as means to better the world and that we all remain careful and vigilant in our technological travels.
